This was my last essay before GMAT
Last summer saw a 500% increase in tourism at seaside resort, and the national economic situation is even more favorable this year. This summer’s tourist boom will surely generate record revenues which will resolve our area’s economic difficulties.
The author’s argument that summer’s tourism boom will continue and it will resolve area’s economic difficulties is weak; it rests on many assumptions and fails to substantiate sustainable evidences. The author assumes that the growth of industry will continue this year. It also assumes that nothing has changed which could have proved detrimental to the area’s environment. It fails to justify how it could solve all economic problems of area. In following paragraphs, I will present these assumptions and weak evidences that weaken the argument along with the premises which can strengthen the argument.
First, the argument incorrectly assumes that it will have similar increase in tourism this year. It’s almost impossible to achieve 500% growth in 2 consecutive years. What if the the year before the last was a disaster and hence last year when the tourism industry recovered the growth was 500% compared to disastrous year. This does not mean that tourism earned much extra money. At the same time it does not mean that such situation leaves enough room for additional growth this year.
In addition, the argument assumes that local economic situation will be as good as it was last year if not better. What if a major tsunami occurred last winter which destroyed all the major properties of the area? If this had happened then the area will not attract more tourists this year even though the national economic situation is more favorable this year.
Furthermore, even if we assume that all is well with the area and its tourism and that tourism will get expected record revenues, there is no strong evidence that states that these record revenues will be able to resolve the area’s economic difficulties. For instance, if the economic needs of area is in terms of billions, a few extra millions earned by the tourism will not solve the economic difficulties.
However, the argument can be strengthened if it’s shown that (1) No unfavorable circumstances, that can lead to decrease in tourists, occurred this year compared to last year (2) Last year’s growth was not a recovery from loss but instead a growth because of improved tourist facilities (3) Credible economic survey estimates growth in this area’s tourism industry to be in excess of 500% this year. (4) The growth would provide sufficient money to cover all economic difficulties of area.
To sum up, as cited in aforementioned paragraphs, the argument rests on weak assumptions and lacks solid evidences. Unless the argument is strengthened by additional premises, such as the ones mentioned in previous paragraph, it does not appear credible. Therefore, the argument is very weak for serious consideration.