A long debrief - UCLA it is finally!

How are you all doing?

 

I received a few emails asking about updates however I didn’t have any exciting update to share so I didn’t reply. Here’s my update:

 

Dec 19^th, 2007, 3:00pm IST – last chatted with Shirish (a fellow applicant from this Google group(GMAT_May2007). We were “hoping” for an admit from either Chicago or Wharton. We left on an optimistic note!

Dec 19^th, 2007, 8:00 pm IST – received a ding from Chicago

Dec 20^th, 2007, 8:00 pm IST – waitlisted from Wharton

 

I hadn’t received invitation from any other schools that I applied in Round 1(or in some cases November round) till that point of time. I never thought I would be applying to any school in January round and I was not prepared at all. I was quite anxious. I was very short of time if I had to apply in Round 2 because the deadlines were around January 2^nd/3^rd. So I had less than 2 weeks to prepare apps from scratch.

 

I went through all the remaining schools and zeroed on 4 schools: UCLA (Jan 2), Ross (Jan 3), NYU (Jan 15) and Haas (Jan 31). I had done some basic research done for all except NYU but nothing in depth to create winning essays.  Someone how I managed to submit my essays for UCLA Anderson & Ross

 

On January 3^rd I received interview invitation from Cornell. I was excited and tried to do my best for preparation for an alumni interview in Mumbai. Among all this I dropped idea to apply for NYU as it was getting too difficult to concentrate on an interview plus 2 applications (NYU & Haas).

 

Cornell interview was not less than a horrible experience. The guy was into FMCG sector and had no clue (or appreciation) about what I do/or have done. I pretty much knew the outcome and that’s what I received after a week – a ding. Cornell system doesn’t even notify you by email that you’re rejected!

 

I focused on Haas app. According to me it is/was my best application of the year. I submitted the app on Jan 31^st and then completely focused on my current job lowering my expectations to “nothing” from B schools.

 

I didn’t receive any notification or invitation from any of the 3 schools (Anderson, Ross, Haas) by March 10^th. On March 15^th I received the very familiar ding from Ross without interview! Now I had almost lost all hopes as UCLA decision deadline was March 28^th. With less than 2 weeks to go another ding was expected.

 

On March 17^th after a really busy day I saw an email inbox stating from UCLA Anderson. I told myself – “here it comes, another ding”. Now I had become very indifferent to dings so I just opened the email. It said “we liked your application on paper and want to one of our representative to meet you!” In all this negative feeling I forgot I could have seen the subject which read “UCLA Anderson MBA interview invitation”. I didn’t know whether to be happy or not because I had 3 interviews prior without any fruitful results.

 

I contacted admission office asking when I can schedule the interview since the decision deadline was March 28^th. They said “you can schedule interview by 31^st March. In this case you will receive your decision a ‘little’ late”. I scheduled my interview on March 31^st in Mumbai. Till now I didn’t count how much I had spent in my aspirations for MBA in terms of application fees and flight expense. But now I had started counting. But just as an impulsive gambler can not stop himself from gambling I decided to spend another few thousands for flight to Mumbai.

 

March 26^th: Wharton decided to release its decisions a day in advance. For some it brought good news. For some it didn’t. I belonged to the 2^nd category – another ding.

 

March 31^st went in a flash. My flight reached Mumbai on 4:30pm. I was in my interviewer’s office by 5:15pm; interview started on 5:30pm and by 6:00pm I was out. The interviewer asked all the questions which created doubts – “why UCLA over Haas/Stan/MIT”, “+ves of UCLA & -ves of UCLA”, “What subjects!”. Overall conversation didn’t last too long because my interviewer had another meeting to attend. But he was very courteous enough to apologize for a “rushed” job. I told myself “a rushed job is going decide how tough I would be in future!”

 

Just before interview I had received an email from UCLA that they never received my transcript & certificate copy which I had already sent in January. This time I sent the copy with one of my friend who was returning to CA on March 31^st. I got an acknowledgement on April 3^rd that they received my docs.

 

Another wait had begun – this time it was for outcome of UCLA & hoping for an interview invite from Haas. I scheduled a family vacation from April 11 to April 16. On April 11 early morning (4:30am) just before sitting in car I checked my emails. To my surprise I had received an invitation from Haas. I couldn’t believe myself as Haas deadline was on April 30 and getting invite from Haas was next to impossible because they declared openly that their spots were almost filled…

 

I was going on vacation so I can’t schedule my interview anytime soon. I was given the deadline to complete the interview by April 26^th. My interviewer was a “busy” person in his business (later on I found out that he joined his family business just 8 months back and was still finding out what his role would/could be!). So the only date available for him to interview was April 26^th. I confirmed with Haas and they said they will give me decision as soon as they receive my interview feedback. I again, with a lot of hesitation, booked my flight to Mumbai. Now I was counting how much I would spend on coffee and sandwiches during my journey to Mumbai – Managing Finance you know!

 

Things went horribly wrong on April 26^th . My scheduled flight of 12:15pm got delayed to 3:15pm and my interview had to be rescheduled from 4pm to 6pm. I travelled through whole Mumbai and reached Hilton Hotel by 5:30pm. The interview lasted for about 1 hour 15 minutes. The length of the interview was encouraging. But the questions were unexpected. The first question was “forget about work, resume, goals; tell me what do you in you free time because that’s the most important thing”. At the end of the interview I had no clue what to expect.

 

April 29 – still I didn’t hear back from UCLA.

April 30, Wednesday: (A) I didn’t hear back from Haas. (B) In response to my one week old email to UCLA I was informed that “A decision is reached and you will be informed later in the day or latest by Friday”

May 1^st – no news from Haas.

May 2^nd (late Friday night)– (A) I didn’t receive any email from UCLA (B) Haas informed me that they didn’t receive my interview feedback so they will be late.

 

That was the longest weekend for me. I was in May and I had no clue whether I am going to Bschool or not.

 

May 5^th, Monday: It was exactly 5weeks post my interview with UCLA and more than 2 weeks after my Haas interview. I was on visit to our office in another city. On my way back in company car I checked my personal emails after midnight (I use wireless data card so I can use the internet on the move! I told myself – “what move? I don’t know what will be my next move”). There was an email from UCLA.

 

This time I didn’t make the mistake to ignore the subject and it helped too. The subject said “Congratulation from UCLA”. The hard work and wait was finally paid off. I had received an ‘admit’. I didn’t know how to express joy, who to call as there were other people in the car. For the next 2 hours I waited endlessly to reach my home and break the news to my parents. I reached home 4am. Mom opened the doors. I just hugged her and told her “I am going”. She immediately understood. Moms always seem to know what their children want to say! That night I was very tired but I couldn’t sleep.

 

May 15^th: I was still waiting on Haas to reply. They still didn’t have any decision for me. May 16^th: Late night just before I went to bed I received an email from I was waitlisted from Haas as they didn’t have enough spots for this year. I was very disappointed because I really liked that school

May 17^th: Early morning, still coming out from Disappointment of last night, I received an email from UCLA. It said “Based on your merit you’re awarded $35,000 fellowship for total 2 years” This amounts to almost half of my tuition fees! I was elated.

 

May 23^rd: I waited for almost a week for Haas but still no decision.

May 30^th: Decided to forget about Haas.

 

So, here are the updates from me till now. I am now waiting for my I20. I received an email a couple of days back from UCLA that my I20 is ready and they will send it very soon. Twists and turns of some of the events in my life in last few months again reminded and reinstated my faith into the famous Rocky lines “It ain’t over till it’s over”

 

Sincere apologies for such a long email, but it wasn’t easy to comprehend updates over 6 months in just a few sentences. And since it’s not a b school essay I don’t need to worry about its length! I look forward to hearing from others.

 

Next updates when I get my I20 and Visa date!

Done with TOEFL

I wrote my TOEFL today. Overall I think I did well and expect a good score (110+) however I was greatly disappointed by center’s facility.

There were plastic chairs and keyboards with hard keys. 5 PCs were setup on a single table, which allows complete freedom to cheat if one wants to because all candidates receive same questions of one batch. (TOEFL is not adaptive like GMAT so everyone gets same questions!). Luckily the headphones were not so bad but I was asked to sit in place exactly opposite to an open window which caused lot of reflection and was really hard to read in RC. I could hardly complete it! By the way they didnt even offered pens to candidates. I had to use my own pen (luckily I took 2 with me).

I faced extra questions in Listening but overall the difficulty of questions was not more than what you find in official guide. I think TOEFLSIM tests were more difficult in RC and less comprehensible in listening. Oh I forgot - you really have to speak loudly to make sure your response is recorded properly. Don’t be shy; just shout out loud! Writing was easy (especially after GMAT essays!)

Overall a much easier test compared to GMAT! My advice would be to take 2 practice tests before actual exam and taking lot of notes on lectures/passages during exam. This can help you tremendously. I will post links and other resources for TOEFL on blog later…

I am going back to continue work on my HBS app…

Spoke to recommenders

Hey all,

I finally told my boss that I am planning to go back to school. It was a shock to him as he would have never thought me going back to school or for that matter even leaving the company. But I had to tell him as I need a RECO from him. Despite of being shocked he gave me a patient hearing and in fact showed interest in knowing which school I am applying to or the specialization I am looking for and how I will manage finance. This discussion went on for 2 hours and he looked very positive about writing recommendation letters for me. I had to warn him that he would have to spend a lot of hours in doing so as I am planning to apply to almost 10 schools!

The other recommender is my Mentor and former boss. My current boss told him about me before I could inform him. So he was not much shocked. But he was very happy. He has been my inspiration since last 4 years so hearing encouraging words from him was quite satisfying. He was also ready to spend any number of hours for my letters! Infact he told me that if I need any financial help once I am in US I can count on him! Such a positive attitude!

I am yet to tell my 3rd recommender. He is a peer but plan to tell him around early next week. I think he would be a cake walk after speaking to the first 2. He will be shocked for sure!

I have almost finalized my resume and have now started working on HBS essays and RECO. I have rough points ready but need to work on putting on paper and mercilessly edit it. But before that I have to crack TOEFL this weekend. So, I will write more once I am done with my TOEFL. 

TOEFL or Resume or Reco?

As the first round deadline OF HBS (Oct-2nd) coming nearer day by day, I am getting more anxious on what all I should include in my resume, essays, reco, cover letter,etc… I have my TOEFL scheduled next week but somehow I cant concentrate on it.

People say if you have done well on GMAT and have good English skills then scoring 110+ is easy. Well I do have good GMAT score and (I believe) have good oral and written english skills but then a standardized exam like TOEFL is also important part of your app. I am going to give 2 TOEFL tests tomorrow to build up my stamina to and hope to do well. That will boost my confidence.

App Process - I have been working on my resume since last 4 days. I didn’t touch at it for last 4 years as I grew to higher designations every 12-18 months and have been with same company. But it presents a new set of challenges. WHAT and HOW MUCH I should include in resume. Some schools say it should be only 1 page (like MIT) whereas some says 2 are fine. I just can’t understand how to include your profile, edu, work history, extras in single page. But do I have an option of not following it? NO. So, will have to cut down my “achievements”.

What I am currently doing is put all that I can recall from my last 4 years at this company in a document and then trying to make bullet points out of it. As they say, I have to mercilessly edit my resume to make it less wordy, concise and to-the-point.

More on resume and other parts later… I have still not told recommenders but I am confident that they will write good recommendation letters for me. I may tell them today itself. Well, once I tell them I am sure I am not going to get that next promotion (which was very near to me!) but will not mind if I get in to my dream school. Let’s see how it goes!  

TOEFL Preps

My TOEFL is scheduled in 10 days and I had started with TOEFL prep with ETS book around a week back. I gave my first Kaplan Test with many interruptions and didn’t do that bad. But somehow I am not feeling satisfied with my preparations. That could be because we work so hard on GMAT that your PREP for TOEFL looks incomplete even though you are almost ready.

I am trying to find out some more listening section and speaking section practice questions. Found out Kaplan book and will go through its audio section CD for better prep. Found out CDs for Cambridge also but haven’t been able to locate corresponding Cambridge book so the CDs are of no use right now. If anybody reading this has it please forward the link of that treasure to this beggar!!

It was really awkward to speak and record your own voice while practicing but I feel much comfortable with it now. I guess my inherent nature of summarizing and opinionating helps me to talk about anything on various questions. But I need to be more clear and consistent in speech. I am praying that I don’t get cold and cough around my TOEFL days!

Well, once I am done with my TOEFL I will post some links for TOEFL resources till then keep doing the best in whatever you’re doing.

Too many MBA Rankings - which one to follow?

I have been reading, re-reading and again visiting school websites and resources to finalize the schools I want to apply. Like many others, I take help of different rankings available online. But each one shows different schools in top 5. So, I researched to find out what each ranking is based on and below is what I found out. I hope this becomes useful to many others like me!

BusinessWeek MBA Rankings

BusinessWeek bases its MBA rankings on:

• 45% on student satisfaction surveys of recent MBA Program graduates
• 45% on surveys of corporate recruiters based on their experiences with a school’s graduates
• 10% on “intellectual capital” calculated by BusinessWeek, which tallies points for appearance of the faculty’s research in 18 specific publications

Detailed MBA Rankings Methodology

BusinessWeek surveys MBA graduates and corporate recruiters, and measures faculty publications.

Every two years, BusinessWeek asks the graduating MBA classes at schools to complete an online survey. MBAs evaluate “everything from the quality of teaching to the efficacy of career placement offices” using a scale of 1-10 for each question. Responses from the graduating class account for half of a school’s student satisfaction score. The other half of the MBA program rankings comes from the responses of the two previous BusinessWeek rankings classes, which carry a weight of 25% each. The resulting student satisfaction score receives a 45% weighting in the overall MBA program ranking.

BusinessWeek also asks corporate recruiters who hire MBAs to complete an online MBA ratings survey. Recruiters rate their top 20 schools based on their company’s experiences with a school’s graduates. Each school’s total score is divided by the number of responding companies that recruit from that school. BusinessWeek reported that there tend to be greater differences among schools in the corporate survey, so recruiter opinion can have a greater impact on the overall ranking. In 2006, BusinessWeek no longer based each school’s recruiter score on a single survey and, instead, combined the three most recent polls, as it does with the student surveys. The 2006 recruiter survey counts for 50% of the recruiter score, while the 2004 and 2002 surveys contribute 25% each. Combined, the three recruiter polls accounted for 45% of the final ranking. The recruiter score accounts for 45% of any MBA program’s ranking score.

Finally, BusinessWeek calculates each school’s “intellectual capital” rating by tallying faculty’s publications in 18 publications, and adds points if The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal or BusinessWeek reviewed a professor’s book. Tallies are adjusted for faculty size. The intellectual capital score accounts for 10% of a school’s MBA ranking.

Financial Times MBA Rankings

The Financial Times bases its MBA rankings:

• 55% on career progression by surveys of alumni, with salary data as the largest measure
• 25% on diversity of faculty, students and board members and the international experience of students, by surveys completed by the schools themselves
• 20% on research, calculated by the Financial Times

Detailed MBA Ranking Methodology

The Financial Times measures three areas in its annual MBA ranking:

• Career progression
• Diversity of faculty, students and board members, and the international experience of MBA students
• Research

The Financial Times sends a questionnaire to alumni three years after graduation to chart their progress from pre-MBA program, through graduation and into the workplace. Their “career progress,” for which the salary data is the largest measure, accounts for 55% of the MBA ranking.

Each school completes a survey, which measures diversity of faculty, advisory board members and students, and international experiences of the MBA students. These diversity and international measures account for 25% of the overall MBA program ranking.

Finally, the Financial Times rates each school for “ideas generation,” which accounts for 20% of the weighting of the overall Financial Times ranking. This research ranking is based on a rating of faculty publications in 40 international academic and practitioner journals (10%); the percentage of faculty with doctoral degrees (5%); and the number of doctoral graduates from the last three academic years with additional weighting for graduates who took faculty positions at one of the top 50 schools in the most recent FT ranking (5%).

Forbes MBA Rankings

Forbes ranks return on investment of MBA programs based on:

• Average 5-year increase in compensation compared to pre-MBA salary for each school’s graduates
• Cost of each MBA program, including estimated foregone salary

Detailed MBA Rankings Methodology

Forbes ranks “return on investment” for MBA programs. For its most recent MBA program ranking, which was released in 2007, Forbes surveyed 2002 graduates of 102 MBA programs around the world.

To determine the five-year MBA gain, Forbes asked alumni for their pre-M.B.A. salaries as well as compensation figures for three of the first five years after getting their degrees. Forbes compared their post-M.B.A. compensation with their opportunity cost (tuition and forgone salary while in school) and what they would have made had they stayed in their old jobs. Forbes adjusted for cost-of-living expenses and discounted the earnings gains, using a rate tied to money market yields.

U.S. News & World Report MBA Rankings

U.S. News & World Report bases its MBA rankings:

• 25% on ratings by business school deans and MBA program directors
• 15% on ratings by recruiters of the schools at which they recruit
• 35% on placement statistics provided by each school
• 25% on school-reported “selectivity”, the percentage of applicants the school accepts for admission

Detailed MBA Rankings Methodology U.S. News & World Report sends surveys to all accredited MBA programs. The annual MBA ranking includes:

• Surveys of deans and MBA program directors who rate programs (25% of the overall ranking)
• Corporate recruiters rate the programs where they recruit (15% of the overall MBA ranking)
• “Statistical indicators,” which include placement success (35% of the overall MBA ranking) and student selectivity (25% of the overall MBA ranking)

Specialty MBA rankings are based solely on ratings by deans and program directors, who can list up to 10 MBA programs for excellence in each area listed. The 10 schools receiving the most votes appear in the ranking.

The Wall Street Journal MBA Rankings

• The Wall Street Journal bases its MBA program rankings 100% on surveys of recruiters’ perceptions of the MBA programs from which they recruit.

Detailed MBA Rankings Methodology

The ranking components for all schools measured in the 2006 survey include three elements: perception of the school and its students (21 attributes); intended future supportive behavior toward that school; and mass appeal. For national and regional schools, mass appeal is defined as the total number of respondents who recruit MBA graduates from that school. For international schools, mass appeal is defined as the number of countries in which the school’s recruiters are based.

Each of these three components - perception, supportive behavior and mass appeal - accounts for one-third of the overall 2006 rank. The 2006 ranking of schools that were ranked in 2005 and remained within the same cluster is based on an average of the 2006 and 2005 rank. For schools that are new to the MBA program ranking survey or moved between clusters, the ranking is based on 2006 results only.   

Verbal Section Strategy

I have been reading several debriefs where slighltly improper time management costs a lot of the eventual score on GMAT. So, I thought of sharing my strategy on verbal section on how I tried to manage my time. I hope some of fellow test takers may find it useful

§         DO NOT BE AFRAID OF VERBAL SECTION. Instead, ENJOY IT!

§         Divide your verbal section in 3 phases

§         Phase 1 [30 minutes]: Take sufficient time for first 15 questions, approximately 2 minutes. You will get at least 1 RC in this but  try to gain momentum because once you are in momentum you will be able to make up the extra time lost

§         Phase 2 [25 minutes]: Be quick between questions 16 and 31. Say approximately 1.5 minutes per question or 25 minutes overall.

§         Phase 3 [20 minutes]: Leave almost 2 minutes per question for last 10 questions as they will contain fewer experimental questions. Please click here why I recommend doing well on last few questions. 

§         Numbered scratch pad: Use your time during the school selection screens to create numbered scratch pad with 5 choices. Use this scratch area to execute POE (point of elimination). Make sure you use POE method for majority of your verbal questions. It will help you narrow down the choices and quickly answer. [Please click here to see where you should have numbered scratch pad.]

Reading Comprehension (RC):

• Almost all study guides will recommend you to do “active reading” by taking notes.  BUT, do NOT write too much. Gaze through one paragraph at a time and just list a few words or sentences (say 1-2 sentences or 5-8 words.)
• Note down point for first 2 RC and try to reduce your dependency on writing for active reading. You can remember 4 paragraphs if you read them carefully. Ideally you may not write more than a few words (or no words) for last RC. This will ensure that you will have enough time to answer last 5-7 questions which are typically SC or CR.
• For last RC you may want to start your reading aiming to answer first question instead of getting overall understanding if you’re running out of time.
• Try to follow 7 step strategy of Manhattan.
• ALWAYS, read the first question before reading passage.
• USE POE in RC. 3 out of 5 choices are irrelevant.

 Critical Reasoning (CR):

• Be quick to remove irrelevant choices. Any words which don’t appear in original passage may actually be irrelevant.
• Try to find out words which match the words from passage. Choices with such words are more than likely to be correct choices.
• Use your numbers scratch pad to remove irrelevant choice by POE. Please click here to see how to create such scratch pad.
• Concentrate a little more on CR that follows RC. Usually you feel fatigued after reading a passage, questions and answer. Another small passage of CR can add to fatigue and a hazy reading may lead you to choose wrong choice. Just a little concentration not too much so that you run out of time afterwards J

Sentence Correction (SC):

• Treat SC as if you’re doing math section. There are predefined grammar rules and if those rules are compromised, the sentence is wrong. This is as simple. Use Manhattan SC guide as bible.
• Read the sentence and try to spot the error. As soon as you spot the mistake USE POE and remove those choices.
• If an answer choice seems to make compromise with grammar rule(s) then cancel it even if that’s the only less wordy choice or probably the last one after you crossed off other 4 choices. It’s very likely that there is another choice that you misread at first attempt.
• When you are left with 2 choices try to find out which one can be wrong. This strategy will help you correct answer.
• Don’t ignore your strength in an attempt to do better on your weak points. SC was my strength so I concentrated on each SC question and tries to pick the right choice. Remember: Your strength will earn you more points than concentrating too much on weakness.

Quant Section Strategy

I have been reading several debriefs where slighltly improper time management costs a lot of the eventual score on GMAT. So, I thought of sharing my strategy on quant section on how I tried to manage my time. I hope some of fellow test takers may find it useful

Test taking strategy:

§         DO NOT TAKE IT EASY. Yes, although it’s relatively very easy to score high in this section, your little complacency can greatly kill your chances to get close to 50’s in Math section and your dream to see 7xx figure.

§         Try to get in to rhythm. Focus on first 15 questions a lot to answer all of them correctly. You can take up to 30-35 minutes to answer them.

§         You can be a little quick for next 12 questions. Try to answer them in around 20 minutes as it’s more likely to have experimental questions. 

§         Save approximately 20 minutes for last 10 questions to ensure that you don’t have any incorrect answer. Please click here why I recommend doing well on last few questions.

§         Although it’s very important to have first 10-15 questions correct but if you encounter a new type of question which literally stumps you then don’t get bogged down and spend too much time. Guess and move ahead. Don’t let the disappointment of not getting it right bother you. You can get a score of 48 even at 10-12 mistakes. Try to get less than 5 mistakes, I believe it ensures that you have around 50 in quant.

§         Double check: Quant is not about knowing all the formula. It’s about answering what is asked. GMAT maths is tricky in its verbiage. Make sure you’re not doing the following.

o        Selecting answer for percentage and not for number (specially in DS)

o        Selecting answer for number where it asked for ratio (esp. DS).

o        Selecting answer for x whereas the question asked for 4x or y

o        Selecting answer for a reverse order (ascending or descending) than originally asked.

General Quant Tips:

§         Probability: If you are not master at it than don’t worry. It should not bother so that you make mistakes in your strong area. If you’re not comfortable than follow 800score techniques for PnC. Their way is really simple for many non engineering students!

§         Practice: Please commit yourself to do at least 50 maths questions every day in last month prior to your test. This will ensure that your calculation speed is well and you’re continuously in rhythm.

§         Do a timed practice: Doing 50 questions in 4 hours will not help. Get into a practice of doing 25 questions in 20 minutes so your speed is near to what is required.

Updates - Received 6.0 in AWA in Offical Score Card

Folks,

I got my official score card from GMAC. I got 6.0 in AWA. I am happy to see that score because I have heard some of the ivy schools do look for a good show in AWA. I have posted my last few essays before the GMAT for you all to review. Please share them if you find them useful.

More later…

Argument - Tourism Revenue

This was my last essay before GMAT

Last summer saw a 500% increase in tourism at seaside resort, and the national economic situation is even more favorable this year. This summer’s tourist boom will surely generate record revenues which will resolve our area’s economic difficulties.

The author’s argument that summer’s tourism boom will continue and it will resolve area’s economic difficulties is weak; it rests on many assumptions and fails to substantiate sustainable evidences. The author assumes that the growth of industry will continue this year. It also assumes that nothing has changed which could have proved detrimental to the area’s environment. It fails to justify how it could solve all economic problems of area. In following paragraphs, I will present these assumptions and weak evidences that weaken the argument along with the premises which can strengthen the argument. 

First, the argument incorrectly assumes that it will have similar increase in tourism this year. It’s almost impossible to achieve 500% growth in 2 consecutive years. What if the the year before the last was a disaster and hence last year when the tourism industry recovered the growth was 500% compared to disastrous year. This does not mean that tourism earned much extra money. At the same time it does not mean that such situation leaves enough room for additional growth this year. 

In addition, the argument assumes that local economic situation will be as good as it was last year if not better. What if a major tsunami occurred last winter which destroyed all the major properties of the area? If this had happened then the area will not attract more tourists this year even though the national economic situation is more favorable this year. 

Furthermore, even if we assume that all is well with the area and its tourism and that tourism will get expected record revenues, there is no strong evidence that states that these record revenues will be able to resolve the area’s economic difficulties. For instance, if the economic needs of area is in terms of billions, a few extra millions earned by the tourism will not solve the economic difficulties. 

However, the argument can be strengthened if it’s shown that (1) No unfavorable circumstances, that can lead to decrease in tourists, occurred this year compared to last year (2) Last year’s growth was not a recovery from loss but instead a growth because of improved tourist facilities (3) Credible economic survey estimates growth in this area’s tourism industry to be in excess of 500% this year. (4) The growth would provide sufficient money to cover all economic difficulties of area. 

To sum up, as cited in aforementioned paragraphs, the argument rests on weak assumptions and lacks solid evidences. Unless the argument is strengthened by additional premises, such as the ones mentioned in previous paragraph, it does not appear credible. Therefore, the argument is very weak for serious consideration.